Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 20.802778 22.584532 24.506912 26.745273 29.292754 32.117095 35.506516
2025-10-12 17.935126 20.355955 23.146478 26.640167 30.953851 36.183301 43.127004
2025-10-19 16.086864 18.904746 22.329177 26.883093 32.918419 40.857322 52.485052
2025-10-26 14.534245 17.546841 21.363346 26.693864 34.193690 44.796031 61.813415
2025-11-02 13.298008 16.408131 20.484708 26.418434 35.211960 48.479047 71.711074
2025-11-09 12.376829 15.562238 19.863795 26.360733 36.460557 52.675107 83.661972
2025-11-16 11.570798 14.780787 19.226369 26.158834 37.402525 56.511378 96.235908
2025-11-23 10.881450 14.092261 18.638271 25.931866 38.226991 60.270869 110.056747
2025-11-30 10.286675 13.484497 18.102003 25.703333 38.982307 64.031778 125.473850
2025-12-07 9.800937 12.994062 17.690817 25.614713 39.945822 68.391203 144.478137
2025-12-14 9.335468 12.498403 17.225994 25.375953 40.581132 72.208234 164.186645
2025-12-21 9.166932 12.431852 17.416966 26.264512 43.491876 81.786863 208.093971
2025-12-28 8.763670 11.988427 16.983801 26.028525 44.175447 86.501140 240.311966
2026-01-04 8.437667 11.645301 16.688493 26.011767 45.320522 92.775554 285.635520
2026-01-11 8.193227 11.414517 16.559829 26.287434 47.147019 101.539538 354.683771
2026-01-18 7.890796 11.073467 16.220105 26.123717 47.962211 107.763063 421.674904
2026-01-25 7.596624 10.729600 15.851727 25.865949 48.517928 113.452920 497.948412
2026-02-01 7.358390 10.463923 15.600397 25.814376 49.564444 121.205320 611.215451
2026-02-08 7.115217 10.177681 15.294158 25.620585 50.227966 127.987077 741.307168
2026-02-15 6.885090 9.902019 14.989654 25.401327 50.794298 134.740076 904.011940
2026-02-22 6.669927 9.641526 14.696965 25.179993 51.324003 141.684134 1114.475167
2026-03-01 6.487524 9.428041 14.477092 25.094198 52.214864 150.659254 1439.600473
2026-03-08 6.296332 9.191407 14.201436 24.862531 52.663801 158.045860 1830.347290